Citizens of the West — citizens of the U.S. in particular — use more than our share. You know this. You have probably taken a carbon or ecological footprint quiz. You have probably found that it would require 2 or 3 or 6 Earths to support your lifestyle. Yes, me, too. I am not particularly wasteful, though my friend the No Impact Man feigned horror when I told him I dry my hair. I offered to use a human-powered peddle energy to run my hair dryer. “Why not just stop needing that energy at all?” he asked.

Yes, why not?

While I’m well aware of the need to cut my needs, I’m one of those who hopes that my small lifestyle (small house, small car, small family) will be enough.

It won’t.

I know. I don’t really hope I can continue with my below average number of required Earths, but I do I hope I won’t live to see the crash. I don’t linger too long on that ridiculous hope, but I do linger. Even if I don’t see it with my own eyes, chances are very good my children will see it up close.

But someone will.

So, I have to reduce?

Yes, drastically.

I’ve been following the conversation among those rioting for austerity in the past month. Basic idea: the fair share of U.S. citizens is 94% less than most of us use now, so reduce to our fair share. Go slowly by just reaching for 90% to start.

The Rules of 90% Reduction including 7 areas (quoted from the rules):

1. Gasoline. Average American usage is 500 gallons PER PERSON, PER YEAR. A 90 percent reduction would be 50 gallons PER PERSON, PER YEAR.
2. Electricity. Average US usage is 11,000 kwh PER HOUSEHOLD, PER YEAR, or about 900 kwh PER HOUSEHOLD PER MONTH. A 90% reduction would mean using 1,100 PER HOUSEHOLD, PER YEAR or 90 kwh PER HOUSEHOLD PER MONTH.
3. Heating and Cooking Energy - this is divided into 3 categories, gas, wood and oil. Your household probably uses one of these, and they are not interchangeable. If you use an electric stove or electric heat, this goes under electric usage.
4. Garbage - the average American generates about 4.5 lbs of garbage PER PERSON, PER DAY. A 90% reduction would mean .45 lbs of garbage PER PERSON, PER DAY.
5. Water. The Average American uses 100 Gallons of water PER PERSON, PER DAY. A 90% reduction would mean 10 gallons PER PERSON, PER DAY.
6. Consumer Goods. The best metric I could find for this is using money. A Professor at Syracuse University calculates that as an average, every consumer dollar we spend puts .5 lbs of carbon into the atmosphere. This isn’t perfect, of course, but it averages out pretty well.
7. Food. This was by far the hardest thing to come up with a simple metric for. Using food miles, or price gives what I believe is a radically inaccurate way of thinking about this. So here’s the best I can do. Food is divided into 3 categories: 70% local food, 20% dry bulk, and 5% wet goods.

There is oh so much more detail in the rules, and the Yahoo! group includes a spreadsheet set up to track reductions. I’ve been thinking that a chart of 7 thermometers would be a good way to track my sinking usage from my place somewhere below the American average down to my fair share. A compelling scoreboard might encourage my children to participate through their own motivation more than my nudging.

Nearly irrelevant final note: When I typed in the link for the Earth Day footprint calculator above, I typed “Death Day.” I type fast, and I sometimes find it interesting to see what comes out my fingers before my brain engages. This type, I stopped short. Is that how I see it? Somewhere inside, I must see it that way.

The amazing Jean Arnold, hub of Post Carbon Salt Lake, has compiled a great slide show to introduce audiences to the idea and implications of peak oil. The one-hour version was shown recently on SLC-TV Channel 17 (public access) — shown again today, Thursday, May 31, 1:30pm.

This one-hour presentation is a good introduction for those new to the whole Peak Oil subject, and sufficiently in-depth for those already familiar with the topic.

You can also watch online or order a free DVD. Send your name and address to:

Bill Haight - Bill.haight@slcgov.com
Technology and Software Support Manager
Salt Lake City - Information Management Services
801.535.7977 Office - 801.535.7634 Fax

Members of Post Carbon Salt Lake are learning to present this show to take it on the road. They will be listed with local speakers’ bureaus soon.

• Jean Arnold is the author of “Another inconvenient truth: peak oil: the rise and fall of oil production,” a comprehensive article from the Catalyst, October 2006.

Yet again, this past week Utah geologists warned that a big earthquake is due along the 220-mile, active Wasatch Fault. The warning isn’t new. It’s due, it’s due, we keep hearing. This time, the warning comes not after minor tembling but after the digging of a deep trench along the fault. The history of the fault becomes more clear as geologists dig through the slipping layers. Five big earthquakes in the past 6,000 years, they say. When I look at the USGS map of most recent five big quakes (magnitude 6.5+), it looks like activity is moving southward. This would put the epicenter south of Provo.

When I look at the Utah Geological Survey map of specific fault zones, I’m in a clear area. I realize that doesn’t mean no earthquake damage. I did mention to my spouse last week that I remember a lot of earthquakes growing up in Hunter (now West Valley City), and I wasn’t sure whether I am less sensitive now, there aren’t so many earthquakes, or we just live in an area where we don’t feel them. Looking at the map, I hope it is the last one. I hope it isn’t just a matter of geologists not caring enough to place a seismograph station nearby. Apparently, there haven’t been any earthquakes in the past week closer than 15-20 miles away.

Resources:

• 29 things to help you survive an earthquake from the Davis School District.
• What to do after an earthquake from the American Red Cross.

FREAKY UPDATE:

Monday night, May 28th, I felt an earthquake. I heard it coming, sounded like a faraway train. It lasted ~2.5 seconds, during which the shaking and creaking of my house moved from the southwestern corner to the northeastern corner. Quite mild. I immediately went to the USGS map above of earthquakes in the past week, didn’t find this one listed (yet), then followed the link for “Did you feel it?” I filled out their “Did you feel it?” form in detail.

So, I guess I have to take back what I wrote about not feeling earthquakes. The key is to be sitting alone in the quiet, with children far far away.

It was a 2.3 magnitude micro earthquake.

In Australia, the Permaforest Trust’s Centre for Sustainability Education teaches not just the ideas but the practice of sustainability on their 100+-acre property.

Too many people I know, particularly academics, are willing to learn and hear more about sustainability, toss out sarcastic comments, and then feign self-rebuke as they admit that the practice is too difficult for them. That is how my local sustainability group has been going lately.

Where is the action? How do I learn from those who are doing what we all seem to agree must be done to come down gently from our carbon high? I look to models like that at the Centre for Sustainability Education.

Permaforest Trust’s founder, Tim Winton, outlined seven steps to take in preparation for the changes to come. Because we can’t entirely prevent the changes we will see in our warmer, post-carbon world, “your approach to sustainability must now include preparations for life in a fundamentally different world.”

1. Integrate systems thinking
2. Increase self reliance
3. Economic disruption
4. Don’t despair
5. No fighting
6. Planetary emergence
7. Tell this story

His suggestions for action are short and clear. Just be sure you ACT rather than simply taking in more information. (And, yes, I’m telling myself as much as anyone.)

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report from January predicted a conservative 28 - 43cm rise in sea level within the next 100 years.

This week, a scientist points out that the UN report doesn’t consider rapid advances in science. The assumption was that polar ice would stay frozen, keeping the sea level rise minimal. The UN consensus report may be too conservative. Even the conservative projections create a picture of faster change, “more devastating than previously thought.” Experience of the past two months doesn’t bear out the assumption of minimal sea level rise.

“All indications are that it’s going to get faster,” said Eric Lindstrom, head of oceanography at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Will you be a climate refugee? If sea level rise is inevitable, you probably want to know how high the water will go. I do. Several of my family live only a few feet above sea level, so I searched far and wide (from my screen) for the best sea level rise map available.

Firetree’s Mr Strange looked for a map, didn’t find one, then created an overlay of sea level rise over Google Maps. Because, it is estimated, the melting of the Greenland ice shelf would result in a 7m rise, the map is parked at that level, but there are controls to change the level from 0 - 14 meters. It’s a pretty cool hack.

But. . .

What if our conservative estimates are too comforting? If the polar ice caps melt, we could see a 20-meter rise. Well, WE wouldn’t see it, but our 13th-Great-Grandchildren might in 500 years. The flood map only goes to 14 meters maximum, but maybe Flood Map 2.0 will include the worst case scenario.

• Gorilla of Sea Level Rise, Living on Earth. Listen to the public radio program.
• Sea Level Rise, Greenpeace.  Includes likelihood of 13m rise.
• Flooding Oahu, University of Hawaii.  Includes 70m maps.  Bye, bye Honolulu.
• The Canary Project is collection “persuasive visual evidence of climate change.”

Transition Culture is, bar none, the best site I know on life after peak oil. Rob Hopkins is a teacher of permaculture and a developer of a powerdown community in Ireland. He speaks publicly, he teaches courses, he is active in his community — and he blogs it all to encourage us to prepare for powerdown in our own communities. We find out how his town’s Energy Descent Action Plan is going as it goes.

For those who want to know where to begin in creating their own transition town projects, he has compiled 10 First Steps for a Transition Town Initiative, based on the experience in his town of Totnes.

1. Awareness Raising
2. Lay the Foundations
3. The Official Unleashing
4. Form Groups
5. Use Open Space
6. Develop Visible Practical Manifestations of the Project
7. Facilitate the Great Reskilling
8. Build a Bridge to Local Government
9. Honor the Elders
10. Let it Go Where It Wants to Go and Reflections

Every one of these steps and every post on the Transition Culture blog is a rich inspiration in itself. And, yet, it’s all just plain practical if you are concerned about relocalization. These steps are seriously practical. It makes me think of the statement by Hopi Elders.

Where are you living?
What are you doing?
What are your relationships?
Are you in right relation?
Where is your water?
Know our garden.
It is time to speak your Truth.
Create your community.
Be good to each other.
And do not look outside yourself for the leader.

This could be a good time!