Do you ever see a photo or hear a story about a situation you know you should be preparing for but you haven’t? When we complained a couple of days ago about 30 days of temperatures over 100 degrees, my brother-in-law countered with floods in his town in southwest England. He’s pretty low key. “But, we’re all right.”

So, we check the BBC for more news of floods, and it’s so much worse than he let on. Throughout the southwest, the midlands, Yorkshire — anywhere there is a river to flood, it seems, England is awash.

Stiff-upper-lipped meteorologists aren’t saying this is due to global warming. The jetstream shifted south this year, carrying far more rain that the rivers can handle. Rather than going to the furthest north of Scandinavia as usual, it’s blowing right through Britain and on to northern Europe.

In most of the stories I’ve read, people are waiting for provisions to be brought to them. The water has been turned off in some places, so bowsers, giant drinking water tanks, have been planted throughout towns. Most people are being oh-so polite and not hoarding food, but could you please pump out the local Co-op Foodstore so I can buy a pint of milk?

The BBC has included reader photos from all over the flooded regions. All of the photos taken together are shocking. People don’t seem to be too worried that such flooding could be the wave (so to speak) of their future. My parents-in-law are only a few feet above sea level. The rise of the sea and other flooding in Britain is generally on my mind. Are they preparing? Theoretically, yes. I want to hear about the practical details.

UPDATE: It’s much worse in the past couple of days.  My in-laws are leaving town because they have no water.  They can get water from the giant bowsers.  It will probably be about 2 weeks before they return to their jobs full-time.  They have it much better than people in many towns in the southwest of England, though.

Yet again, this past week Utah geologists warned that a big earthquake is due along the 220-mile, active Wasatch Fault. The warning isn’t new. It’s due, it’s due, we keep hearing. This time, the warning comes not after minor tembling but after the digging of a deep trench along the fault. The history of the fault becomes more clear as geologists dig through the slipping layers. Five big earthquakes in the past 6,000 years, they say. When I look at the USGS map of most recent five big quakes (magnitude 6.5+), it looks like activity is moving southward. This would put the epicenter south of Provo.

When I look at the Utah Geological Survey map of specific fault zones, I’m in a clear area. I realize that doesn’t mean no earthquake damage. I did mention to my spouse last week that I remember a lot of earthquakes growing up in Hunter (now West Valley City), and I wasn’t sure whether I am less sensitive now, there aren’t so many earthquakes, or we just live in an area where we don’t feel them. Looking at the map, I hope it is the last one. I hope it isn’t just a matter of geologists not caring enough to place a seismograph station nearby. Apparently, there haven’t been any earthquakes in the past week closer than 15-20 miles away.

Resources:

• 29 things to help you survive an earthquake from the Davis School District.
• What to do after an earthquake from the American Red Cross.

FREAKY UPDATE:

Monday night, May 28th, I felt an earthquake. I heard it coming, sounded like a faraway train. It lasted ~2.5 seconds, during which the shaking and creaking of my house moved from the southwestern corner to the northeastern corner. Quite mild. I immediately went to the USGS map above of earthquakes in the past week, didn’t find this one listed (yet), then followed the link for “Did you feel it?” I filled out their “Did you feel it?” form in detail.

So, I guess I have to take back what I wrote about not feeling earthquakes. The key is to be sitting alone in the quiet, with children far far away.

It was a 2.3 magnitude micro earthquake.

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report from January predicted a conservative 28 - 43cm rise in sea level within the next 100 years.

This week, a scientist points out that the UN report doesn’t consider rapid advances in science. The assumption was that polar ice would stay frozen, keeping the sea level rise minimal. The UN consensus report may be too conservative. Even the conservative projections create a picture of faster change, “more devastating than previously thought.” Experience of the past two months doesn’t bear out the assumption of minimal sea level rise.

“All indications are that it’s going to get faster,” said Eric Lindstrom, head of oceanography at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Will you be a climate refugee? If sea level rise is inevitable, you probably want to know how high the water will go. I do. Several of my family live only a few feet above sea level, so I searched far and wide (from my screen) for the best sea level rise map available.

Firetree’s Mr Strange looked for a map, didn’t find one, then created an overlay of sea level rise over Google Maps. Because, it is estimated, the melting of the Greenland ice shelf would result in a 7m rise, the map is parked at that level, but there are controls to change the level from 0 - 14 meters. It’s a pretty cool hack.

But. . .

What if our conservative estimates are too comforting? If the polar ice caps melt, we could see a 20-meter rise. Well, WE wouldn’t see it, but our 13th-Great-Grandchildren might in 500 years. The flood map only goes to 14 meters maximum, but maybe Flood Map 2.0 will include the worst case scenario.

• Gorilla of Sea Level Rise, Living on Earth. Listen to the public radio program.
• Sea Level Rise, Greenpeace.  Includes likelihood of 13m rise.
• Flooding Oahu, University of Hawaii.  Includes 70m maps.  Bye, bye Honolulu.
• The Canary Project is collection “persuasive visual evidence of climate change.”

The old symbol alerting us to the presence of radiation was too tame. It doesn’t tell you what to do. It doesn’t tell you how to act. At the very least, considering the era, you might expect to see a desk to hide under.

The old, gold trefoil is not being phased out. It is just being supplemented by a new symbol that the International Atomic Energy Agency — and their 1650 people polled in eleven countries over a five-year project — find the new symbol intuitive. All of the people polled understood the meaning, “Danger — Stay Away.” Technically, it probably says:

1. See the radiation.
2. It is killing you.
3. Run like a girl.
4. In the time it took you to read this storyboard, you have died.

It looks more to me like it says, “Run, Run, Run like hell.”

The new symbol “will not be visible under normal use, only if someone attempts to disassemble” devices housing large sources of ionizing radiation. You are not likely to see this symbol in use.  If you see this symbol, freak out immediately.

In order for you to prepare for potential futures you might face, you need to be able to imagine yourself in that future. I am not sure most of us could let our imaginations go quite that far.

Fiction might push you a lot further down that road of imagination than you intended. Cormac McCarthy’s The Road took my breath away. The stark dialogue between father and son and the stark choices they made to survive their reality make so much of what we do seem irrelevant. Yet, the love and devotion shines even in this context as the child learns to be “one of the good guys,” the ones “carrying the fire.”

Reviews

• “Apocalypse Now,” Washington Post, October 1, 2006.
• “The Road through Hell, Paved with Desperation,” New York Times, September 25, 2006.
• “This is the End,” Pop Matters, September 18, 2006.
• “End of the Line,” Village Voice, August 31, 2006.

I find it extremely interesting that military and law enforcement officers are being trained in disaster preparedness. This isn’t just a matter of combat readiness. The Navy Compass has been reporting on “family readiness” recently, including The Family Emergency Preparedness Fair at Serra Mesa. The event was created to “help military families prepare themselves to survive on their own for as long as possible in the event of a disaster.”

• Develop a plan
• Update emergency contact information
• Identify mustering points
• Develop emergency kit

The report lists the basic elements of a family readiness plan.